Debby and Helene. Two storms which impacted us in 2024, and in the case of Helene, a storm which will most likely be a case study for many years to come. Helene busted the typical mold of hurricanes being a coastal problem, showing us again, as Hugo did some 36 years ago, that tropical storms and hurricanes can impact people living inland. In fact, residents in western North Carolina are still picking up the pieces one year later. The physical scars will heal, slowly but surely, but the emotional scars may last a lifetime.
As we continue hurricane season 2025, we never forget the past, because lessons are learned with every storm, big or small. We also must look to the future, knowing that another big storm is out there, maybe not this year, but in years to come. The average rate of return of a major hurricane is 22 years. We are coming up on the 36th anniversary of the last major storm to make landfall in South Carolina, and that storm was named Hugo. Are we past due? Many think we are. We continue to see our population grow, putting more people in harm’s way, but there are many positives in the way these storms are handled and forecast. Our technology is getting better. Computer models which predict the storms’ # potential movement are becoming increasingly more accurate.
We are even using artificial intelligence models, which so far have had a good track record. We do have to remember that forecasting these storms is difficult, since the atmosphere is fluid, and is always moving and changing. This is why we discourage looking at computer model solutions more than seven days out. The skill is just not there, but it does give us a place to start, to examine trends. The more a specific model throws out a certain solution, the more our confidence will grow.
Forecasters still believe at the end of this hurricane season we will see the number of storms above normal. In an average year, 14 storms will get names, seven of those will reach hurricane level and three will become major hurricanes, with winds greater than 110 miles per hour. We have already seen Hurricane Erin, which did reach 160 mph, or Category 5, in the ocean. Fortunately, it did not make landfall here in the United States.
What we can continue to do now, and in the future, is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The Lowcountry is a gem, and using the phrase paradise could be an understatement. Many came here to be near water. Others who grew up here stayed because of the water. There is this magnet effect. The draw is great, but being near water also puts us at risk, especially from June 1 through Nov. 30. The feather in our cap is that we can see these storms coming and will never be surprised. When it comes to hurricane forecasting, I will take this as a win!
By Rob Fowler, News 2 Chief Meteorologist
Leave a Reply